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Tuesday, April 26, 2011

Supply, Demand and the Current Evolution of Yen

Recent monetary developments shows how wrong is the theory that the value of the currency depends on the economy. The value of money does not depend on the economy. Value of money (that is the power supply) depends on supply and relative demand of money, not the prices of the market, nor the high unemployment or any other technical elaboration.


As long as demand exceeds supply, the price trend of the concerned goods (currency, stock or anything else), will be rising. When the supply and demand are balanced, the goods price will move sideways, between intervals of price well defined or not, called phases of congestion or accumulation.


This phenomenon could be noticed concerning the yen. If the theory of the currency value as a reflection of the state economy would be valid, the yen should have depreciated. The yen was raising in value because of increased demand for money. This increase in demand has been caused by the necessity to avoid uncertainty on payments and future payments.


In other words it's about fears induced because of the earthquake, the tsunami and the damaged nuclear power plant. Because of this increased state of uncertainty grew the demand for liquidity, thereby increasing the value of yen.


This phenomenon was also observed regarding the dollar, at the beginning of the financial crisis. So, how is it that a strong inflationary currency (thanks to Greenspan and Bernanke) grew in value? Here's the answer! The currencies of the emerging countries (China, India, Brazil, etc.), strongly speculated, were perceived as less reliable, with the possibility to collapse ahead of the dollar.


There are many supporters of precious metals, who think that in these catastrophic periods, gold and silver are the basis for economic survival and not only. The problem is that paper money are currently perceived as the only accepted way for payment of everything that exists. After the earthquake in Japan gold and silver were sold for the liquid money needed for buying goods, insurance payments, etc.


The growth of the yen, taking into account the fact that Japan has a huge debt, is catastrophic, being an obstacle for the already affected exports. The question which many analysts and politicians put, is why the Central Bank did not intervened to stop the advance of yen. Well, the answer is that the Bank's management understood that it is better to let the Market to fix prices as desired, without the need for a monetary issuance which would not solve anything at all.


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