Chicago Fed: Economic Activity Improved in March

Forex Analysis This post by CalculatedRisk has been reprinted from Calculated Risk.Comments (0)

Catching up – this was released last week at the same time as several other releases. Note: This is a composite index based on a number of economic releases.

From the Chicago Fed: Economic Activity Improved in March

Led by gains in production indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index increased to +0.26 in March from +0.16 in February. March marked the fourth consecutive positive reading of the index and the sixth consecutive positive contribution from employment-related indicators. Neither has exhibited such patterns since April 2006.

The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, edged down to +0.20 in March from +0.27 in February, but remained positive for the third consecutive month for the first time since May 2010. March’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was somewhat above its historical trend. With regard to inflation, the CFNAI-MA3 suggests limited inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month moving average) since 1967. According to the Chicago Fed:

A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values indicate below-average growth; and positive values indicate above-average growth.

Not a robust recovery, but this index suggests the economy was growing somewhat above trend in March.

Weekend:
• Summary for Week ending April 29th
• Goldman estimates 3.5 million Excess Vacant Housing Units.
• Schedule for Week of May 1st CalculatedRisk @ May 1, 2011

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Lower Commodity Prices?

Forex Analysis This post by CalculatedRisk has been reprinted from Calculated Risk.Comments (0)

Three weeks ago there were a couple of articles in the WSJ about lower prices for steel and copper. Here is another more general article: Commodity Surprise: Some Are Now Heading Down

Cotton has pulled back 17% from the all-time record set in early March, and sugar is down 34% from its multidecade high in February. Lead and zinc have tumbled in recent weeks after shooting up in the second half of 2010. Copper has shed 6% this year.

The declines came amid a wild April in which other raw materials continued to climb. U.S. oil prices rose 7% for the month, while gold set fresh records in nominal terms 13 times and silver neared its all-time high.

Lower commodity prices would definitely help, but unfortunately the one that matters the most for the U.S. economy – oil prices – are still high (WTI futures are at $113.56 per barrel, and Brent Crude is at $125.56). High oil and gasoline prices are one of the key downside risks for the economy.

Weekend:
• Summary for Week ending April 29th
• Goldman estimates 3.5 million Excess Vacant Housing Units.
• Schedule for Week of May 1st CalculatedRisk @ May 2, 2011

View the original article here

Schedule for Week of May 1st

Forex Analysis This post by CalculatedRisk has been reprinted from Calculated Risk.Comments (0)

The key report for this week will be the April employment report to be released on Friday, May 6th. The ISM manufacturing report will be released on Monday, and the ISM non-manufacturing report on Wednesday. There are several Fed speeches this week (only a few are included below). Also the automakers report on vehicle sales on Tuesday.

—– Monday, May 2nd —–
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for April. The consensus is for a decrease to a still strong reading of 59.5 from 61.2 in March.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for March. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in construction spending.

2:00 PM: The April 2011 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices from the Federal Reserve. The January survey indicated some slight easing of standards and more demand for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans over the fourth quarter. For other types of loans to businesses and households, the January survey indicated banks have stopped tightening standards (they are already very tight), and demand has stopped falling (there is little demand for loans).

—– Tuesday, May 3rd —–
All day: Light vehicle sales for April. Light vehicle sales are expected to decrease to 13.0 million (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), from 13.1 million in March. The impact of the supply chain disruption is a big unknown.

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the March sales rate.

Edmunds is forecasting: “Edmunds.com analysts predict that April’s Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) will be 13.3 million, up from 13.1 in March 2011.

“As inventories rapidly deteriorate, April could be the last month that we’ll see strong sales numbers until late summer or early fall,” said Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell.”

10:00 AM: Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders for March. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in orders.

—– Wednesday, May 4th —–
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index has been very weak over the last couple months suggesting weak home sales through the first few months of 2011.

8:00 AM: Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren speaks before the NAIOP Commercial Real Estate Development Association

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for April. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for +195,000 payroll jobs in April, down slightly from the 201,000 reported in March.

10:00 AM: ISM non-Manufacturing Index for April.

This graph shows the ISM non-manufacturing index (started in January 2008) and the ISM non-manufacturing employment diffusion index. The March ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 57.3% in March. The employment index indicated slower expansion in March at 53.7%.

The consensus is for a slight increase in April to 58.0.

3:00 PM: San Francisco Fed President John Williams gives his first policy speech on “Maintaining Price Stability in a Global Economy” in Los Angeles.

—– Thursday, May 5th —–
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The number of claims has increased over the last few weeks. The consensus is for a decrease to 410,000 from 429,000 last week.

9:00 AM: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, “Implementing a Macroprudential Approach to Supervision and Regulation” in Chicago.

—– Friday, May 6th —–
8:30 AM: Employment Report for April.

The consensus is for an increase of 185,000 non-farm payroll jobs in April, down slightly from the 216,000 added in March.

This graph shows the net payroll jobs per month (excluding temporary Census jobs) since the beginning of the recession. The estimate for April is in blue.

The consensus is for the unemployment rate to remain at 8.8% in April.

The second employment graph shows the percentage of payroll jobs lost during post WWII recessions through March – aligned at maximum job losses.

This shows the severe job losses during the recent recession – there are currently 7.25 million fewer jobs in the U.S. than when the recession started.

3:00 PM: Consumer Credit in March from the Federal Reserve. The consensus is for credit to increase $5 billion.

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April in Figures

Forex News This post by larrygreenberg has been reprinted from Currency Thoughts.Comments Off

April was a volatile month.  The dollar plunged across the board.  Most stocks markets improved, and G7 ten-year sovereign debt yields fell.  A rise in three-month euribor deposit rates as the ECB entered a tightening cycle put added strain on the peripheral members of Euroland, and their bond yields rose.  Commodities soared.  Impressive gains of [...]

Daily Forex Analysis – May 2, 2011

Forex Analysis This post by ForexCycle.com has been reprinted from Forex Market Analysis.Comments (0)

EURUSD Analysis. EURUSD may be forming a cycle top at 1.4881 level on 4-hour chart. Range trading between 1.4700 and 1.4881 would likely be seen in a couple of days. However, the price action from 1.4881 is treated as minor consolidation of uptrend from 1.4157, as long as 1.4700 support holds, uptrend could be expected [...]

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Goldman estimates 3.5 million Excess Vacant Housing Units

Forex Analysis This post by CalculatedRisk has been reprinted from Calculated Risk.Comments Off

Some key numbers for the U.S. economy are: 1) the current number of excess housing units, 2) how many new households are being formed each year, and 3) how many housing units are being added to the housing stock each year (at a record low this year).

Unfortunately reliable data for the first two numbers is unavailable except with a significant lag.

I’ve used the quarterly Housing Vacancy Survey (HVS), but that is not really designed for this purpose.

Goldman Sachs put out an estimate yesterday of 3.5 million units based on the HVS: “Based on data from the Census Bureau, we estimate that about 3.5 million housing units currently sit vacant, above and beyond normal seasonal and frictional vacancies.” They calculated a range of 2.5 to 4.5 million units based on different assumptions.

Recently economist Tom Lawler took a long look at the 2010 Census data, and estimated there were about 2 to 3 million excess vacant housing units as of April 1, 2010. With the record low number of housing units delivered last year, Lawler estimated that as of April 1, 2011 the excess “would be somewhere in the range of 1.45 to 2.45 million units – with the latter almost certainly too high”. With another record low number of units added to the housing stock this year, the excess will be in the 750 thousand to 1.7 million range next April (with the latter “certainly too high”). This suggests the excess supply will be gone sometime between early 2014 and 2016.

Goldman has a higher estimate of excess vacant units, but they also have a higher estimate for household formation (partially because of pent up formation from all those people who doubled up during the recession). The conclude “[W]e think the recovery in single family housing starts will remain very slow. A plausible central scenario would be an increase in starts from about 475,000 units in 2010 to 600,000 by 2012. We do not expect single-family housing starts to return to their historical average rate of about 1 million units until 2015 or later.”

In Thoughts on Residential Investment Recovery, I noted: ‘My guess is housing starts will return to “normal” in 2015 or 2016.’ It is hard to pinpoint an exact date because the data is uncertain. Frustrating!

But here is a little good news on data via Tom Lawler:

The Census Bureau announced that beginning next week it will release “demographic” profiles of 13 states each Thursday in May, with the first round of “states” will be the District of Columbia, Florida, Kentucky, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, New Mexico, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee and West Virginia. For folks interested in the housing markets, the data will include (among other things) data on housing tenure (owners/renters), occupancy/vacancy (include vacancy status – for rent, for sale, seasonal, etc.), age and sex distributions, and household types. These releases will help analysts get a much better “feel” for the overall housing market as of April 1, 2010, and will highlight just how “messed up” the data from the Census Housing Vacancy Survey really is – and why analysts should not use it to try to estimate the “excess supply” of housing.

I think the Goldman estimate is too high, but no one really knows. Hopefully by the end of May we will have a much better estimate for the excess supply as of April 1, 2010.

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Unofficial Problem Bank list increases to 984 Institutions

Forex Analysis This post by CalculatedRisk has been reprinted from Calculated Risk.Comments Off

Note: this is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Apr 29, 2011.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

The FDIC got back to closing banks this and released its enforcement actions for March 2011, which contributed to many changes to the Unofficial Problem Bank List. In total, there were six removals and 14 additions this week. After these changes, the list includes 984 institutions with assets of $422.1 billion, compared to 976 institutions with assets of $422.2 billion last week.

Among the removals are two action terminations AmericanWest Bank, Spokane, WA ($1.6 billion Ticker: AWBCQ); and Bank of Franklin, Meadville, MS ($95 million). Of the five failures this week, only four were on the list — The Park Avenue Bank, Valdosta, GA ($953 million Ticker: PABK); Community Central Bank, Mount Clemens, MI ($476 million Ticker: CCBD); First National Bank of Central Florida, Winter Park, FL ($352 million); and Cortez Community Bank, Brooksville, FL ($72 million Ticker: COTZ).

Most notable among the 14 additions are Artisans’ Bank, Wilmington, DE ($643 million); Arthur State Bank, Union, SC ($636 million); The Business Bank, Appleton, WI ($357 million); The Pueblo Bank and Trust Company, Pueblo, CO ($333 million); and Ojai Community Bank, Ojai, CA ($124 million Ticker: OJCB).

A number of Prompt Corrective Action orders were released this week to Bank of Choice, Greeley, CO ($1.2 billion); Oxford Bank, Oxford, MI ($285 million); Summit Bank, Burlington, WA ($147 million); Coastal Bank, Cocoa Beach, FL ($133 million); Bank of Shorewood, Shorewood, IL ($125 million); and Signature Bank, Windsor, CO ($73 million). The FDIC terminated the PCA order against Prosper Bank, Prosper, TX ($69 million).

Comparing names and locations of institutions on the Unofficial Problem Bank List with the FDIC’s structure database resulted in 15 name changes and 16 city changes. In these instances, the FDIC certificate number is unchanged. However, should anyone not be able to locate an institution from a previous week’s list drop us a note and we will get back to you on where that institutions has gone.

There may be some good news when looking at the monthly numbers. The list declined by one institution at the end of April 2011 to 984 from 985 at the end of March 2011. This is the smallest monthly change since the list was first published in August 2009 with the next smallest being an increase of two institutions in December 2009. For the month, there were 27 additions and 28 removals including 11 failures, 10 unassisted mergers, and 7 action terminations. For the past 21 months, on average, there have been about 46 additions, 12 failures, 3 unassisted mergers, and 4 action terminations. During April 2010, the slowdown in additions and the increase in unassisted mergers (namely multi-bank holding company subsidiary combinations) contributed to the net decline.

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Jim the Realtor: A Stinker REO

Forex Analysis This post by CalculatedRisk has been reprinted from Calculated Risk.Comments Off

Jim was just assigned this REO – in a pretty nice neighborhood – but it is a real “stinker”. I looked at an REO in the early ’80s with a similar issue, but this one has been sitting closed up and vacant for 30 months. Oh my …

Earlier:
• Consumer Sentiment increases slightly in April compared to March
• Personal Income and Outlays Report for March
• Restaurant Performance Index increases in March
• Q1 2011 Details: Investment in Office, Mall, and Lodging, Residential Components
• LPS: Mortgage Delinquency Rates declined in March, Foreclosure pipeline “Bloated” CalculatedRisk @ April 30, 2011

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Hints and Tips - Learn FOREX To Make A Great Income

If you wish to learn FOREX and trade profitably then here are some hints & tips to get you going.

Trading FOREX can bring you a great regular income but it must be treated with respect. Like any other job trading requires training and practice. When you start a new job there is a lot to learn; you need to understand the company you are working for, your customers, suppliers, systems and people that you will be working with. It takes time and patience before you become excellent at all the aspects of your job.

It is no different when you study FOREX.

When learning to trade you need to become an expert in the following:

? FOREX markets

? Risk Management

? Trading Plans

? Brokers

? Trading Platforms

? Technical Analysis

? Fundamental Analysis

? Cycles

? Time frames

And perhaps the most important of all, you need to become an expert in yourself. An understanding of the psychology of trading is absolutely critical. How will handle the pressure of trading? Do you have the discipline to know when to make a trade and when to get out?

The list above looks like a lot and that's because it is!

You are not going to be a millionaire overnight in trading FOREX, but if you get it right then you can make a very good income either part-time of full-time.

One of the huge advantages of trading FOREX is its flexibility. As you begin to learn the subject you can practice trading around your existing job. You can trade 24 hours a day, 5 days a week so there are a lot of options.

Certain times of day are better to trade than others. These include when the UK/European market opens, when the US opens and closes. At these times you will see more momentum in the market as this is when the major players make their moves.

Practicing trading before you risk any money is also one of the key foundations for success. In order to learn about all the items listed above you need time to play. Why risk your own money during this time?

Here are the key steps in ensuring success to learn FOREX and make money.

1. Choose a broker. Make sure they are legitimate. Download (from their website) their version of the Metatrader platform.

2. Open a practice account with the broker.

3. Start playing with the trading platform, use the help files and introductory guides (see below) to try out different functions and features.

4. Create your trading and risk management plan.

5. Start a new practice account and trade as if you were following your plan. Keep practicing until you are consistently profitable for at 2-3 months.

6. Open up a small real account with your chosen broker. Use a micro-lot account. Start trading with real money using the same profitable techniques you have learnt with your practice accounts.

7. As you make money, gradually increase your pot size and trades. Ensure that you are still trading within your chosen risk management plan.

8. Scale up and compound those profits!

To learn FOREX and to trade profitably you must be patient and spend time and effort studying all of the different aspects of trading.

Follow the points outlined in this article and review the introductory guides that you can find at the link below.

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Metatrader 4 Expert Advisors - Should You Create Your Own?

Introduction

The popular opinion among the active posters in the Forex forums is that you can only make money in Forex by designing and trading your own Metatrader 4 Expert Advisor. While it sounds good in theory, the reality is that there are numerous problems with creating your own FX Expert Advisor that they either don't know or don't tell you about. Simply put, there's just no way that a beginner Forex trader (or even an intermediate one) can successfully design their own EAs. By the end of this article, you'll know the only way that you can really win with Metatrader 4 Expert Advisors.

The Problem With Creating Your Own Metatrader 4 EAs

Most beginner Forex traders really have no idea how to trade Forex profitably, so is it reasonable to expect them to develop their own FX Expert Advisor? Of course not! Developing a profitable Forex EA isn't just a matter of throwing a couple of indicators together and running backtests until you find a profitable combination. You really do need to understand the Forex markets and the patterns of price behavior before you even think about developing your own Metatrader 4 Expert Advisor. Otherwise, you're very likely to create a "curve fitted" system that worked well in the past, but is useless for live trading.

Profitable Metatrader 4 Expert Advisors are based on sound strategies that come from years of market research that no beginner Forex traders can hope to achieve in the short term. It's just like asking a first year medical student to perform complex brain surgery - it just isn't possible! Regardless of what anyone might tell you, it takes 3-5 years for any beginner Forex trader to accumulate the necessary market experience to develop their own profitable FX Expert Advisor.

Winning With Metatrader 4 EAs

So what can you do if you want to make a Forex trading income right now? Simple - you do your research and buy a Metatrader 4 Expert Advisor that actually works. Obviously, not every single one of the FX Expert Advisors out there do work, just as not every Forex trader makes money in their Forex trading. So how do you tell the good from the bad? Well firstly, you've got to be very skeptical and ignore all the hype and empty promises out there. You're not going to quadruple your money in a month's time, and you're not going to win 95% of your trades. Believe it or not, you don't need a system like that to make a consistent Forex trading income! A system that wins 50-60% of the time is fine, as long as its gains are more than its losses.

So how do you know if an FX Expert Advisor will actually deliver on what it promises? Simple - look for a money back guarantee from a reputable vendor, and test the system on a demo account risk free during the money back guarantee period. If it does what it says it will do, then you know it's safe to trade it with real funds. Otherwise, don't hesitate to return it and post up a bad review of it so that others know not to waste their time on it as well. It may take a while for you to find one, but it's well worth the effort.

Finally, trading with Metatrader 4 Expert Advisors is no different from trading Forex on your own. You've got to start with enough capital, stick to your system and apply good money management in all your trading. If you do that, then you can be sure that you'll have far better results than trying to design your own FX Expert Advisor.

I've been a full time Professional Forex Systems Developer since 2007. Forex trading is my passion, which is why I really love helping anyone to overcome their challenges and become profitable in their own Forex trading. If you're just getting started in trading Forex, or if you'd like to take your trading to the next level, I'd love to help!

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Market Maker Or ECN - Which Is Better When Trading Forex?

Electronic Communication Network (ECN) or Market Maker (MM) is the main thing which distinguishes a FOREX dealer from a broker. When you trade the dealer or market maker is the counter party, this is because, for an ECN, a counter order is actually required for execution of the deal. Although the FOREX markets are quite liquid the counter order can become a problem only when the order is very huge, or when the market is extremely slow or fast. The ECN is not able to do quite a few things which the MM does, but actually they do not have to, as they have no balancing of books. But it is also true that trading in ECN will require more accuracy and subtle trading techniques which the trader should aspire for.

If you take into account the various MMs, only a few are good and some are even excellent, but the majority is awful. You should remember the significance of a trade counter party, and should also know that market makers are literally the controllers in the market supposedly to maintain an order in the market. They control the dealing desk, and also No Dealing Desk through liquidity providers, the stream of data, the platform for trading, and tools like pip spreads, re-quoting, rules of trade, cancellation and acceptance of trades and dealer intervention. Fortunately Rule 2-43 of the NFA has reduced a few of these aspects but not eradicated them. There is some progress in this direction but with repeated excess they will be the industry dinosaurs.

On the other hand ECN brokers too have their own problems, the prominent one being their platforms are quite complicated, and learning and using them is very difficult. They mainly consist of raw data and need to be integrated with technical services and charting from a third-party. But the leeway is less as they are basically trade matched orders. In slower or faster markets the liquidity may worsen with a ECN, as market tools which are orderly, are not provided. But my advice would be to look for an ECN once you have gained experience in the FOREX market. You will also find that many retail brokers are providing trading via an ECN for small accounts also. But how they are able to bundle lots of 10k and make them into a 250K lot and escape intervention is not totally understood by me.

The main issue which is predictable is that ECNs will dominate in comparison to MMs because market makers, for maintaining order, often indulge in book manipulation. This manipulations are achieved by activities like dealer intervention, pip spread setting and re-quoting, whenever it please them. The basic problem from this is that market makers actually are trading against their clients. The profit you could make may turn out to be a loss for market makers.

MMs are in the habit of manipulating pip spreads and make it look like a legitimate process for maintaining the market. On the other hand ECNs do not do this generally. ECNs and market makers both will provide DOM (Depth of Market) where you can see the standing orders for buying and selling and also the bid price and the asking price. This is actually quite valuable information when you have practiced the correct way of using it.

Further complications arise when certain companies who are actually MMs advertise themselves as being an ECN broker It is not clear how such a hybrid entity can operate, and in few cases it is just semantics to get off the moniker of being a market maker.

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Getting Started In Forex - Staying Safe In Shark Infested Waters

Introduction

Many beginner Forex traders are attracted to getting started in Forex because it's represented as an easy and safe way to earn an additional income, but the truth is that trading Forex is a dangerous environment. There is a very real risk that you may lose your entire starting capital if you don't know what you're doing, and statistics show that 90% of beginner Forex traders give up on trading entirely within a year of starting. Clearly, successful Forex trading requires more than just a Forex broker and a basic system for trading. By the end of this article, you'll know how to stay safe in the shark infested Forex waters, and make the Forex trading profits you deserve.

The Dangers Beginner Forex Traders Face

Most beginner Forex traders start out without a proven Forex trading system, and that's the source of many of their initial losses. If you're just getting started in Forex, don't even attempt to trade without a tried and tested method for deriving Forex trading profits, otherwise you'll end up losing money. When you're new to Forex, it will take you a long time to gather the necessary knowledge and experience to develop your own method or system, so you're much better off buying a proven system if you want to start making profits quickly.

Even with a proven Forex trading system, there's still a considerable risk if you don't practice good money management. In Forex, your trading system tells you what trades you take, but your money management system is even more important because it tells you how many to take. You can take the right trades, but risk too much on them and still end up with a loss. Good money management in Forex is all about staying safe so that you can profit from your proven Forex trading system in the long run.

Staying Safe In The Shark Infested Forex Waters

In Forex, there are many "sharks" that would try to convince you that their system is the answer to all of your problems, but many of them are only trying to con you out of your money. To tell the scams from the real deal, you only need to apply common sense when you're making your decision. If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is, and in Forex you're not going to double or triple your money in a matter of weeks no matter how "good" the system is supposed to be. A more realistic expectation is 5-10% return each month, and if you can find a system that delivers that on a consistent basis, you've got a winner in your hands.

Even more important is your Forex money management system. The best practice is to limit your risk per trade to 2-4% of your total trading capital, because this will increase your size when your system is on a good run, and reduce your size when your system in on a losing streak. You should allow your profits to compound as you go, and make additional investments at regular intervals to further increase your Forex trading profits.

Staying safe in the dangerous waters of Forex is easy if you have a proven Forex trading system, and practice good money management. The key is to focus on protecting your capital and surviving for the long term, and your profits will come in for sure.

I've been a full time Professional Forex Systems Developer since 2007. Forex trading is my passion, which is why I really love helping anyone to overcome their challenges and become profitable in their own Forex trading. If you're just getting started in trading Forex, or if you'd like to take your trading to the next level, I'd love to help!

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Housewives Trading Forex

This is not a big secret and apparently this is just the tip of the iceberg. Recent trend showed that many women are trading forex conveniently from their house especially in Japan, South Korea, Britain, and the United States. This is possible because today we have many tools that can help us to trade forex. Things such as self-paced DVDs, home course, and assisted trading. The latter is the best type for those who only have very little time to monitor the market. Why? Because the service is designed to cater the needs of those who wished to trade forex but cannot afford to spend time to engage in a long learning curve that is required to master forex trading. Why long learning curve? Because you first need to learn the method, test them out on the market using demo account (so you don't have to risk real money in testing the methods) and then you open a real account after you are confident that the trading method can give you profit. We are looking at 1 year time horizon.

Is there a way to cut the time? Yes. Why not skip the learning process and go straight to making money from forex? This is not a hype at all, we are talking about the reality that is happening around the globe as you read this article. Consider this... if you are a lawyer and you suffer from a heart disease do you go back to college to then pursue advanced study in cardiology? Honestly it's not a bad idea, but you certainly won't do it, right? If you are a nurse and you love your health and only eat organic food do you buy a land and start farming? Obviously not, right? So why not do the same thing? Focus on what matters the most to you-your family and make money without sacrificing your precious time.

Now these are the simple steps that you need to do in order to benefit from the forex market:

The first thing you need to do is to familiarize yourself with the forex broker's trading platform. To do this simply go to Oanda or Alpari UK and register a free demo account, go to YouTube and search for trading tutorial on MT4 or Oanda. Make sure to be creative in keyword usage because there are many tutorials regarding trading platform in YouTube. After a week or two you should already be able to do make a buy or sell orders or other things in the platform. After all that, open a real trading account for yourself.

The next step is to find a good forex trading signal service that can assist you in spotting good opportunities in the market. This is the most difficult thing to do especially today because you have to search, list and compare hundreds of services that are available on the internet. Most of them are simply not profitable, most of them are beginners. The good news is there are still genuine services out there that you can rely on to bring profit from the forex market. You should know that the success of new traders lies in subscribing to a genuine forex trading signal service that can help jump start their forex business.

Essentially, those are the steps that you need to do because forex trading signal will help you greatly in terms of making money and providing you the time you need to learn the rope. Not only that, a great forex trading signal service will also educate you by providing explanation for every trading signal they send. Honestly, this is the best thing for a new trader. You get the optimum output with very little effort on your part. This is the ultimate forex trading strategy for new comers.

I spent hundreds of hours discerning the services so you don't have to spend even a minute just to find the good one. Why waste your time?

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Learn Forex - 6 Tips That Will Help Trade Profitably And Make Money

Trading forex seems like a very complex activity but actually there are a set of defined procedures and rules that if followed will make the job a lot simpler. To learn forex you need to take into account the following:

? Consistency

Which ever way you decide to trade forex, whatever systems you use, plans, tools and techniques, consistency in your approach is critical. If you keep changing the goal posts then you have nothing to measure yourself again. Trading forex can be quite boring at times. You can be sitting in front of a computer for hours and hours before you can make a trade. Whatever you do, do it consistently!

? Measurement

In order to understand if you are trading profitably or not, you must measure what you are doing. Every time you make a trade you should record every element of it. For example you should include the time/date, the forex pair you are trading, whether your buying or selling, the lot size, stop loss, profit target and the reason why you took the trade and what the result was. Only by recording this information can you understand what is happening and what you need to do to improve your results.

? Risk Management

The most important factor in any kind of trading is to protect what you already have. It's harder to win back money that you might have lost than to make new money. For example if you lose 50% of your trading pot you would need to double it (increase by 100%) just to get back to the original amount. That is why it is so important to manage your risk. You should not risk any more than 2% of your pot for any one trade. If you follow this rule then you would have to lose over 40 consecutive trades before your trading pot would be wiped. You cannot learn forex successfully unless you follow a risk management plan.

? Trading Plan

As mentioned above, consistency is crucial for trading successfully. To be consistent you must have a plan, and the plan defines when you enter a trade, when you exit it, how much money you risk for each trade. Once you have tested and refined it then you can execute it consistently.

? Psychology

Another very important factor in trading is your psychology. How do you react when things are going well and when things are going bad? What will be your trading style? What time frames will you work with? Are you trading part-time or full-time? What is your financial situation? All of these questions and others need to be answered.

? Persistence

Trading forex is challenging but can also be very rewarding. However persistence is a fundamental part of your success in trading. You are not going to be a millionaire overnight with trading; it takes time, patience and persistence. You develop a system, test it, measure the results, fine tune it, test it, measure and hopefully improve. Once you get it right it will provide you with a wonderful income for life. Don't give up!

To learn forex and trade successfully requires that you consider all of the factors mentioned above. There is no short cut in making money, but there is a huge opportunity to make a massive income if you follow the rules. If you would like to know more than please click on the link below for a free introductory guide.

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Metatrader 4 Expert Advisors - Why The Banks Don't Use Them!

Introduction

There's a widespread myth in Forex trading circles that Metatrader 4 expert advisors don't work, after all if the did, then wouldn't the big banks and hedge funds sack their entire trading department and replace them with Metatrader expert advisors instead? While it's true that large financial institutions don't trade with the commercial automatic Forex trading systems available on the market, it's not because they don't work. There's a reason why this opportunity is "unwanted" by the major players, and by the end of this article, you'll know how you can profit from this little known fact.

Why The Big Banks And Hedge Funds Don't Use Metatrader 4 Expert Advisors

Typically, the large financial institutions like banks and hedge funds trade with hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars at a time. Obviously, the biggest issue for these big players is liquidity, because they would be taking thousands of contracts at a time, and that's just for one of them. When you consider the effect of all of them buying and selling at once, you can imagine just how hard it is for them to get a good price without drastically moving the market.

The problem that most big banks and hedge funds encounter with liquidity is good news for small individual traders, because it represents an opportunity to get into favorable positions that they can't. That's because individual Forex traders can enter and exit the market at will without "paying" any pips in slippage (getting a worse price due to poor execution). Good Metatrader 4 expert advisors add to the advantage of the small Forex trader even further, because it gives them a proven edge in the markets.

How You Can Profit From This "Unwanted" Opportunity

The large financial institutions can't possibly dream of using Metatrader 4 expert advisors to profit from the Forex markets, because it would be impossible for them to enter and exit their positions at the right prices. That's why they don't "want" this opportunity, because the typical Metatrader 4 expert advisor can only handle a million dollars before slippage becomes a problem. So if you have less than a million dollars in capital to trade, then this is a huge opportunity for you to profit in the place of the big banks and hedge funds.

Most small Forex traders don't profit from their Forex trading, because they don't have a proven edge in the market. They wrongly believe that Metatrader 4 expert advisors don't work, and as a result they try to do their own trading, with disastrous results. You can use this inside knowledge to your advantage by identifying a profitable Metatrader 4 expert advisor, and utilizing that edge to shortcut your way to Forex trading success!

I've been a full time Professional Forex Systems Developer since 2007. Forex trading is my passion, which is why I really love helping anyone to overcome their challenges and become profitable in their own Forex trading. If you're just getting started in trading Forex, or if you'd like to take your trading to the next level, I'd love to help!

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Good Forex Trading System - How To Spot The Genuine Article

Introduction

In a marketplace that is becoming increasingly saturated with dud systems by the day, a good Forex trading system is really hard to find these days. There's a new "latest and greatest" automatic Forex trading system released at least once a month, so how do you differentiate between the genuine article and the "me too" marketers? By the end of this article, you'll know how to find a good Forex trading system to make you the Forex profits you desire.

To Find A Good Forex Trading System, Timing Is Everything

Product launches are the scourge of the Forex robot industry, because they use all the deceptive marketing techniques in the book to get you to buy what is essentially an unproven system. One of the biggest lies you'll hear when someone's trying to sell you an automatic Forex trading system is that they are only selling 100 copies because they don't want to "lose the edge" of the system. While it's true that a system's effectiveness will decrease if there are a lot of people trading it, the kind of volume that will cause that to happen is in the millions. Even if 100 traders started trading it with $10,000 in capital each, it would hardly begin to put a dent into the viability of the system. So don't buy in to the myth that the seller will take their system off the market any time soon, because they'll want to sell as many copies as possible.

Timing is everything when you're looking for a good Forex trading system, because there's simply no track record at the moment the system is launched. Sure, you'll read your fair share of reviews done by paid writers and optimistic traders who have just bought it, but it normally takes 6 months for the truth to come out. If you want to save yourself a whole lot of time and money, then you're far better off waiting until 6 months after an automatic Forex trading system is launched before you make a proper decision. Let others do the testing for you, and swoop in once you're confident that the system has proven itself.

Turning A Good Forex Trading System Into A Long Term Money Machine

Even if you're confident that you've found a good Forex trading system, you still owe it to yourself to be safe and protect your capital. Profits can be made easily with the right system, but once you've lost your capital your money will have to work doubly hard to make it back. That's why you should test your new automatic Forex trading system on a demo account for at least a month before running it on real funds. An added benefit of doing a month's worth of testing is that you'll know what to expect from the system, and have the added confidence of knowing that it can weather a losing streak. Losing streaks do happen even with the best systems, so to avoid wrongly giving up on it too soon, you need to manage your own expectations.

Patience is a virtue when you're searching for a good Forex trading system, and being anxious about missed profits is your worst enemy when it comes to profiting from the Forex market. If you adopt a calm and cautious approach, you'll avoid the many traps that other more impatient traders will fall into, and you'll be able to conserve your capital for when you really have the genuine article.

I've been a full time Professional Forex Systems Developer since 2007. Forex is my passion, which is why I really love helping anyone to overcome their challenges and become profitable in their own trading. If you're just getting started in trading Forex, or if you'd like to take your trading to the next level, I'd love to help!

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Make A Fortune In The Foreign Exchange Market: How To Trade Forex For Ultimate Profit

Many entrepreneurs are beginning the journey into investing. Long term trading has proven to be the safest way to grow wealth but it is not the only way. Currencies are possibly the fastest growing genre of day trading available to the general public. With this fast growing area of investing, investors are finding themselves searching the internet for; How to Trade Forex For Profit.

Day trading is the craft of trading securities and holding on to them for a limited amount of time. A day trader will usually only hold a security for a few minutes or hours and will usually have all positions closed at the end of the day with all profits and losses counted for the given day. Day traders often trade using margin accounts.

Forex is an abbreviation for Foreign Exchange. This is the genre of securities regarding the trading of contracts for differing amounts of foreign currency. Forex may be the fastest growing sector of securities among the general population due to promises from brokers about millionaire dreams.

A contract for a security with the promise to purchase that security at a future date and time for a specified price is called a future. Futures are bought and sold in the hopes that the specific commodity or security will either rise or fall in value at a specified point in the future, thereby allowing the buyer or seller to profit off of the gain or loss.

Many indexes and currencies are too costly for an average person to trade. The Emini Forex was brought to life by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange as a way of scaling down the costs of the larger future indexes and future securities contracts so that these futures can be bought and sold by individuals as opposed to investment groups.

Currencies have been thought by many to be a losing game because brokers are better versed at making money than their investor counterparts. It is thought that some brokers intentionally steer a client wrong for the sake of self monetary gain. The invention of the Forex emini has allowed even the amature investor to take part in Japanese and European money futures without risking excessive loss and being governed by unfair practices.

Every investor has a strategy about long term or short term investing. Books and videos are only some of the ways that investors have tried to share their tips and techniques. Unfortunately, most of these tips and techniques are either outdated, unproven, or require a college degree to decipher. This causes great confusion to the new investor. An easy to learn software tool or website will be a great starting point for your investing journey.

Navigating through a search engine for; Understanding Foreign Exchange: How to Trade Forex For Profit will lead new investors to a variety of web tools and softwares. A good choice in software will ease the transition into trading currency futures. Anyone will be able to enjoy the thrilling ride that day trading will take you on in a comfortable and intuitive software environment.

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Getting Started In Forex - This Mistake Will Destroy Your Account

Introduction

Everyone getting started in Forex trading does so as a means to an end. For some, it may be to create an additional stream of passive income, for others, it may be to achieve financial freedom and build wealth. That's the one thing that everyone getting started in Forex trading has in common: they're all in it to build a better life. There's always a danger that one will get impatient and try to achieve that better life faster by taking more risks, and this is one mistake that will destroy your trading account if you allow yourself to fall into that trap. By the end of this article, you'll know how to avoid that one mistake that every beginner Forex trader makes, and build lasting Forex trading profits for you and your family.

The One Mistake That Every Beginner Forex Trader Makes

The one mistake that every beginner Forex trader makes is to allow their greed to dictate their trading. When you're getting started in Forex, you may not have all that much money to start off with. In fact, the average deposit of a new Forex trader is between $2,000-$5,000. With that amount of money starting out, you can expect to make a good $200-$500 a month, which is fantastic compared to what the banks or any other investment vehicle will give you.

Somehow or the other, we've been led to believe that we can have more. That's what greed is: an insatiable hunger for more and more and more. There are people out there that would tell you that you can make 100% or even 200% a month, and turn your $5,000 into $50,000 like clockwork in a matter of months. Yes, it's possible for you to do it, but it comes with a price. There's a very real possibility that you will blow up your entire trading account if you try to gun for such high returns.

How To Build Lasting Forex Trading Profits

The secret to building lasting Forex trading profits is to have a profitable Forex trading system in place, and more importantly to limit your risk on each trade. You may be used to risking 10% and upwards of your trading account, but even with a profitable Forex trading system in place that's a recipe for disaster. That's because no matter how profitable your system may be, it will still experience losing streaks that will be completely outside the realm of your expectations. If you're risking big on your trades, then you'll wipe yourself out when one of these losing streaks hit you.

So what's a safe level of risk to trade your account on? I recommend risking no more than 2-4% of your account depending on how aggressive you want to be. You risk 2% if you're conservative, and up to 4% if you're super aggressive. Anything below that will result in vastly inferior trading results, and anything above that will put your account in serious risk of a blowout.

Keeping your risk low is the cornerstone of successful trading, because it keeps you in the game long enough to allow your profitable Forex trading system to compound your profits for you. If you're starting with $2,000, don't try to turn it into tens of thousands of dollars overnight. Build it up with regular additional investment and reinvest your trading profits, and soon you'll have a capital base that will bring you the level of Forex passive income that will give you the better life you desire.

I've been a full time Professional Forex Systems Developer since 2007. Forex trading is my passion, which is why I really love helping anyone to overcome their challenges and become profitable in their own Forex trading. If you're just getting started in trading Forex, or if you'd like to take your trading to the next level, I'd love to help!

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How To Trade Forex Successfully - The Forex Success Mindset

Introduction

If you're trading with automatic Forex trading systems, you may wrongly believe that mindset has nothing to do with your success in Forex trading. The right mindset is actually a very big part of how to trade Forex successfully for big profits with automatic Forex trading systems. In fact, two traders running the same profitable Forex trading system can have vastly different results due to the differences in mindset that they have. By the end of this article, you'll know how to trade Forex successfully with the right mindset.

Common Mindset Mistakes Of Beginner Forex Traders

The biggest mistake that any beginner Forex trader can make is to be overly anxious about the performance of their automatic Forex trading system. They get worried after one or two losses, and start thinking that the system may have stopped working. As a result, they give up on a profitable Forex trading system too soon, and miss out on the profits that they could have made if they were more patient with it. If this has happened to you before, you know how painful it is to open up the system you gave up on a month ago, only to find that it's had record profits all the while since you shut it down.

Another common beginner mistake that you'll want to avoid is being overly aggressive with the risk allocation to your system. When you have a profitable Forex trading system, it's easy to get caught in the trap of being greedy and wanting to make more and more profits by taking bigger risks. While you may get bigger gains in the short term by risking more on each trade, the chances of you wiping out your account are huge. I'm sure you would agree that it's far better to be conservative and ensure consistent long term profits than to risk it all and lose it all when something unexpected happens.

How To Trade Forex Successfully With The Right Mindset

The Forex success mindset is a combination of being calm and patient, and has a lot to do with how well you are prepared for your live trading. Most beginner Forex traders rush into live trading, which has a lot to do with greed and leads to a lot of anxiety when things don't turn out as expected. The smart Forex trader will hold off on live trading and start out with demo trading for at least a month to determine the expected performance of the automatic Forex trading system. If you want to learn how to trade Forex successfully, then you need to do the same.

Once you've fully prepared for your live trading with at least a month of demo testing, then you're ready to commit real money to your trading. At the start, you should only invest a maximum of half of what you have available to trade, and invest the other half after a month of profitable live trading. Not only does this reduce your risk drastically, but it also helps you to adopt a calm and cautious attitude while you're doing so. Once you have completed another month of profitable trading, you can proceed with full investment and have the peace of mind because you're prepared and know how to trade Forex successfully.

I've been a full time Professional Forex Systems Developer since 2007. Forex trading is my passion, which is why I really love helping anyone to overcome their challenges and become profitable in their own Forex trading. If you're just getting started in trading Forex, or if you'd like to take your trading to the next level, I'd love to help!

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Money Management For Trading - Ways To Success

There have been many self made millionaires that could attest to the potential of the trading industry as a gateway to financial freedom. Because of this a lot of people do wish to become successful traders themselves but surely there are a handful of things they have to remember before taking the plunge.

Good money management for trading is the only safety net you can rely on and the very first thing a trader should decide upon is the amount of risk capital he is willing to place on the line. It is termed as risk capital because it should be an amount with which you are comfortable in losing. Yes, it may sound morbid of thinking that your money can be lost at any given moment but that is the harsh reality you have to deal when you engage in the trading business. Many neophytes resort to using the forex or trading software. These software technically analyze that constant movements in the market and do your trades for you 24/7. Since they are computerized you no longer have to worry regarding the currency pairings and languages making money management for trading somewhat easier.

Although the software do give you ample signals and greatly augment the analyzing you should be doing, it is still best to be hands on it every once in a while. Among the many factors that could affect the trading industry, news is one of the most powerful. Because of that fact should keep yourself updated with anything in the media that could affect the market. A large component of good money management for trading is knowing when one should make a trade and when not to. A drawdown is also one thing you need to decide upon even at the start of your endeavor. It is a given that at the start of any trading business very large profits are as rare as blue moons and that reasonable and realistic goal are the key to success in a system where the only control you have is the decision of trading.

The time you are willing to invest in trading also plays a very big role in the amount of money you want to invest. Surely you don't want to invest thousands of dollars and spent several minutes of your time for it. Money lost in the trade is money that may never come back.

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